Filed Under: 2012 Elections, 2012 Presidential Election, Capitalism, Democratic Party, Democrats, Economy, Elections, Featured, Government, Markets, Party Politics, Politics
The White House this morning, is serving up fake jobs numbers… again. And they read like a fairy tale. 7.8% unemployment. But notice… the U6.. the real unemployment number… isn’t listed in the reports we all see… It stood at 14.6% as of last month. That’s a fact that has not moved substantially, for months. Here’s the breakdown from the BLS.GOV website.
|Measure||Not seasonally adjusted||Seasonally adjusted|
|Sep ’11||Aug ’12||Sep ’12||Sep ’11||May ’12||Jun ’12||Jul ’12||Aug ’12||Sep ’12|
|U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force||5.2||4.3||4.2||5.3||4.6||4.6||4.5||4.4||4.3|
|U-2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force||5.0||4.4||4.0||5.2||4.5||4.6||4.6||4.5||4.2|
|U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)||8.8||8.2||7.6||9.0||8.2||8.2||8.3||8.1||7.8|
|U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers||9.4||8.7||8.0||9.6||8.7||8.7||8.8||8.6||8.3|
|U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force||10.2||9.7||9.0||10.5||9.6||9.7||9.7||9.6||9.3|
|U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force||15.7||14.6||14.2||16.4||14.8||14.9||15.0||14.7||14.7|
|NOTE: Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.|
They’ve been faking these unemployment reports, using the U3 numbers in the reports you and I see… and the ones the press fawns over, all along, and hiding the U6 for years… The reason is that the U3 has been the far more attractive number if you’re Obama. The U6, you see, lists those who have given up looking for work in this Obama economy. (Note the advisory on the bottom line of the chart) Notice that U6 number hasn’t moved outside a reasonable margin of error for many months. Now, after the dismal performance the other night, how are we to believe that they’ll not offer more fake jobs numbers as they have for months? Oh… and here’s another point, by way of the AP:
Still, many of the jobs added last month were part time. The number of people with part-time jobs who wanted full-time work rose 7.5 percent to 8.6 million.
Of course, that little tidbit is buried waaaaaay down on the very last line of the story. What they’re admitting here, is that underemployment of the individual is an issue. One Obama and company would rather you not know about. And one wonders what the numbers will look like once the layoffs start happening at defense plants around the country, hmmm? You remember… the pink slips Obama’s people didn’t want going out until after the election. They’re doing everything they can at the White House to keep the word from going out that the Obama economy is a Obama-made disaster.
IS the Administration DIRECTLY fiddling with the numbers? Likley not, though I’d not put it past them, given tyhe level of untruth we’ve been seeing out of the WH these past nearly four years. I’m sorry gang, but I just can’t put it past them. The level of cynicism coming out of this white house and its protectors in the press have made me Cynical on this the point. the level of trust simply is not there.
But on the whole it seems more likely to me that it comes down to how the numbers are touted by the WH and the press. Kevin Hassett nails this pretty well:
Image © Route16 – Fotolia.com
The report, of course, reveals the results of two surveys, one of households, one of establishments. The professional economists and the press usually emphasize the establishment survey because it is viewed as less volatile. The establishment survey was terrible. The 114,000 number of jobs created on net in September is well below the average for this year (146,000) and the average for last year (153,000). This is wholly consistent with the story that the economy is decelerating sharply as we head into the fall.
The household survey, on the other hand, portrays a September that was booming, far more so than could possibly be true given the other indicators. According to it, the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8 percent, with total employment jumping by a whopping 873,000. I wish it were true, but it will likely be a blip when we have a few more months of data.
Back when President Bush presided over a jobless recovery, the household survey tended to show better news. At the time, every media organization carefully emphasized the establishment numbers, and warned that the household numbers are suspect. That, of course, is what happens when a Republican is in office. For President Obama, you can expect a household survey lovefest. The AP story that went up at 8:33, of course, emphasized the household survey, even adding, “The decline could help Obama, who is coming off a disappointing debate against Mitt Romney.” Get ready for more of the same.
Sorry, comments for this entry are closed at this time.